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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though experts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a campaign dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.