How Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in Gaza But Struggles Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an upcoming US-Russia leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he planned to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, too.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
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The frequently changing meeting is just the latest development in the president's efforts to broker an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.
During a speech in the North African country last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's move to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave the president leverage to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has warned to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the global economy and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing arms shipments to the nation - only to then back off in the face of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
Trump often boasts about his ability to meet and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the war any closer to a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
During the summer, Putin consented to a summit in the US state just as it seemed probable that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader called Trump who then touted the possible summit in Hungary.
The next day, the president hosted Zelensky at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.
Trump insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he stated.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – even territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on calling for a truce along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, Trump vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, admitting that concluding the war is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when both parties wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.